China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China’s economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up in Q3. But with credit... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) The jump in new lending last month was mostly seasonal and masks a drop in broad credit growth. We expect this slowdown to continue given further signs that the focus of policy makers has shifted away... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Consumer price inflation rebounded last month but remains at a comfortable level. Meanwhile, producer price inflation returned to positive territory for the first time in over four years. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that the recent pick-up in activity may have extended into September, consistent with our forecasts for growth to have edged up in Q3. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) A renewed pick-up in credit growth last month will add to the growing sense among investors that the near-term outlook for China’s economy is fairly bright. Credit growth is still likely to slow over... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Better-than-expected data out of China today raise hopes that policymakers’ efforts to reverse the slide in investment growth are seeing some success. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Inflation softened by more than expected last month but we think the decline will prove short-lived and doubt that it will spark further monetary easing by the People’s Bank. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) A pick-up in export growth points to some welcome improvement in external demand while the sharp recovery in import growth hints at stronger domestic demand. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Aug.) Another drop in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves points to continued intervention by the People’s Bank. It also suggests that capital outflows remain sizeable and so that the renminbi... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Aug.) For the first time since November 2014, both manufacturing PMIs are now at or above 50, the line that – in theory at least – separates expansion from contraction. This ought to boost sentiment and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter. However, the economy faces a number of headwinds and we expect growth to slow again in the coming quarters... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit is still expanding at a faster pace than during most of the past couple ofyears. But the impact of earlier monetary easing is now waning and after peaking in May, credit growth is... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) Despite the slight decline in industrial value-added growth, underlying data on output volumes suggest activity in key parts of industry continued to strengthen last month. That said, a further sharp... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Less rapid increases in food prices dragged down consumer price inflation last month, masking a continued pick-up in broader price pressures. Inflation is likely to edge up in the coming months... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
