China Data Response Official PMIs (Jun.) The official manufacturing PMI continues to point to robust economic growth. But the data should be taken with a large pinch of salt given that the index has recently diverged with more reliable... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The squeeze in bond markets explains a pick-up in corporate loan growth last month as firms sought cheaper forms of credit. But on broader measures, the recent slowdown in credit growth has been... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Headline industrial production growth was stable last month but the output volumes of individual products hint at a continued deceleration in activity. Meanwhile, weaker inflation in capital goods... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation edged up last month on the back of a less rapid drop in food prices. But declines in non-food inflation and producer price inflation still point to an easing of broader price... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) The latest Chinese trade data beat expectations. Imports, in particular, held up surprisingly well. But given the approaching headwinds to the economy from policy tightening, we doubt this strength... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (May) The latest rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank (PBOC) became net buyer of FX for the first time in well over a year last month. This reflects an easing of capital... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Yesterday’s official PMI reading had hinted at growth having remained broadly stable last month. But today’s downbeat unofficial PMI suggests conditions may not have held up as well as previously... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) The latest official PMI readings add to broader evidence that downward pressure on growth has eased lately. We expect this stability to prove short-lived. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) The activity and spending data for April all came in below consensus, continuing the recent trend of disappointing Chinese data. Softer foreign demand and domestic consumption were the immediate... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The headline credit data for April were stronger than anticipated, with lending holding up relatively well in response to policy tightening. That said, our adjusted measure of broad credit still... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded in Q1 at the fastest pace in five years in y/y terms, boosted by strong growth in exports and investment. But this is likely to be as good as it will get. While external... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up last month but broad price pressures still appear fairly subdued. Meanwhile, the rapid rise in producer price inflation since late last year is now reversing, thanks... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Chinese trade is still growing rapidly but shipments are beginning to slow, with cooling domestic demand weighing on imports. Meanwhile, capital outflows are edging up again despite the recent rise in... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest PMI readings support our view that growth in China peaked at the turn of the year and is now decelerating. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1) & Activity & Spending (Mar.) Growth edged up last quarter according to the official GDP figures. Our own measure of economic activity also points to a strong start to 2017, though we don’t expect the strength to be sustained. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) The latest trade data point to buoyant external demand but suggest that domestic demand may have started to cool. 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
