China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) While official figures show a small deceleration in industrial output growth last month, our own measure points to a much shaper decline. Meanwhile, the are signs in the rest of today’s data that the... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Higher market rates are driving a slowdown in credit growth that is set to weigh on economic activity in coming quarters. Weaker incoming data should keep the PBOC from tightening policy any further. 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) We think it’s on borrowed time but the still-buoyant property market supported another quarter of strong household spending for Hong Kong in Q3 which helped offset weakness elsewhere in the economy. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Higher-than-expected inflation last month means that the China reflation story remains alive for now. But with the economy set to soften in the coming quarters and current price gains partly the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) A shift in the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival explains much of the decline in headline trade growth in October. But even after accounting for seasonal factors, trade volumes have edged down... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The stability of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month masks a pick-up in FX purchases by the People’s Bank (PBOC). We believe this intervention is aimed at creating uncertainty over the short... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Today’s unofficial PMI reading suggests that the economy may have held up better in October than yesterday’s official PMI readings initially suggested. But this is unlikely to prevent year-on-year... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) The latest official PMI readings suggest that growth momentum weakened this month. With fiscal support likely to be reduced now that the Party Congress is over and the environmental crackdown set to... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) Both the official figures and our own China Activity Proxy suggest that growth held up well last quarter, and so did the monthly activity data in September. However, a less supportive fiscal policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Credit (Sep.) Core inflation rose to a near six-year high last month and producer price inflation continued to rebound, consistent with resilient growth ahead of the Party Congress. But the credit data suggest that... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Seasonal factors helped to boost year-on-year trade growth last month. But there are also hints of a real pick-up in domestic demand, perhaps due to efforts to shore up activity ahead of the Party... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) New lending rose in August, but this masks a decline in underlying credit growth, which has trended down during the past year. A further slowdown appears likely given the government’s current campaign... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) The activity and spending data for August all came in below expectations. The main culprit was a slowdown in infrastructure investment, which also weighed on industrial output. We expect further... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Export growth slowed by more than anticipated last month. Unfavourable base effects appear largely to blame. Nonetheless, outbound shipments remain softer than in Q2. Inbound shipments have held up... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank may have become a net buyer of FX last month for the first time since 2015. This would signal that the central bank’s... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
