Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the easing cycle already priced in? Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early... 19th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economic outlook matters more than “50 vs 25” Policymakers have put themselves in a tricky spot ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC announcement. But whatever the size of the policy rate cut they end up delivering, the outlook for the US economy is... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US households’ appetite for equities US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities still at the mercy of inflation The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than... 11th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think equities and oil will go their own ways for a while Although softening global demand for oil has pushed the Brent Crude price to a near three year low, we don’t think the global economic outlook will prevent strong equity gains. 10th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the post-payroll market jitters are overdone Although today’s news about the US labour market disappointed investors, we think it is in line with higher Treasury yields and a rebound in US stocks. 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of yield curve “disinversion” The Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks amid growing recession concerns, but we doubt one will materialise this time. We expect the curve to steepen further over the next year or so... 5th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How does S&P 500 sector performance align with the ISM? A disappointingly small rebound in the headline index of the US ISM manufacturing survey for August appears to have put some relative pressure on cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 today, which is down... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end? Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects. 2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What if the Fed and the ECB underdeliver? US and euro-zone inflation data released today did little to change our view that both the Fed and the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp in September, as investors seem to expect. But we think both... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
