Capital Daily Hard to see much upside for sterling, despite its recent fall Sterling has continued to struggle over the past days, pushed down by fears over Brexit and the UK economy. We doubt that the currency will rebound anytime soon, and there is still a significant... 17th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors betting on further rally in BTPs likely to be disappointed UK CPI inflation was probably unchanged at 2.0% y/y last month (09.30 BST) We think that the euro-zone inflation rate for June will be revised upwards (10.00 BST) End of plant shutdowns probably... 16th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil currencies’ outperformance unlikely to last Since oil prices started to recover in early June, the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have outperformed their G10 peers as investors have revised up their expectations of short-term interest... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Negative bond yields have boosted the appeal of gold China’s export and import growth probably remained weak in June Rebound in euro-zone industrial production unlikely to offset fully April’s fall (10.00 BST) US core producer price inflation may have... 11th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Fed easing still likely to disappoint investors in Treasuries Fed minutes from June meeting are likely to take a back seat after Powell’ testimony We think that Sweden’s inflation fell below 2% last month (08.30 BST) US core consumer prices probably picked up in... 10th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoE likely to tighten if a deal is reached, pushing Gilt yields up UK MPs to launch fresh bid to stop next PM forcing through a “no-deal” Brexit Japan’s wage growth data continue to be distorted by change in methodology (00.30 BST) Powell could provide clarity on... 8th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors still too optimistic about the Fed’s ability to save the day Fed Chair might provide clarity on rate cut prospects in semi-annual testimony (Wednesday) US inflation may have been boosted in June by the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods We think that euro... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EDP or not, Italian bond yields are likely to rise later this year We estimate that US non-farm payroll employment rose by 125,000 in June … (13.30 BST) … and think that wages rose by about 0.3% m/m (13.30 BST) Canada’s employment probably increased by only 10,000... 4th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lagarde likely to preserve dovish ECB stance, keeping yields low We think that inflation in Switzerland moved closer to zero in June (07.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales are unlikely to have rebounded in May (10.00 BST) The National Bank of Romania will probably... 3rd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone bonds likely to rally further as ECB relaunches QE We think that Turkey’s CPI inflation fell sharply last month (08.00 BST) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably dropped back in June (15.00 BST) The central banks of Sweden and Poland are likely... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Post-G20 relief may not last long European Commission unlikely to recommend formal disciplinary action against Italy We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its policy rate to 1.00% (05.30 BST) Brazil’s monthly industrial... 1st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Trade truce unlikely to prevent global equities from falling • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably edged lower in June (Monday) • The RBA is likely to cut its policy rate to 1.00% (Tuesday) • We estimate that US non-farm payroll employment rose by 125,000... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Outperformance of defensive stocks not a cause for comfort • We estimate that Japan’s industrial production increased by 1.8% m/m in May (00.50 BST) • Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer index probably rose in June (08.00 BST) • US personal spending data are... 27th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to continue to struggle this year Japan’s retail sales values probably rebounded in May (00.50 BST) We think that economic sentiment in the euro-zone remained subdued (10.00 BST) Mexico’s central bank is likely to stand pat for now... 26th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Strong equities and safe-haven currencies: squaring the circle • Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to speak about monetary policy (Tuesday) • We expect the RBNZ to stand pat this week, but cut its policy rate later this year (03.00 BST) • We think that US durable goods... 25th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why we disagree with the message from the Treasury yield curve We think that Hungary’s central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate (13.00 BST) US Conference Board consumer confidence index probably fell back in June (15.00 BST) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s... 24th June 2019 · 5 mins read
