Capital Daily Germany’s fiscal policy unlikely to alter outlook for bonds The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the... 19th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk of “Japanification” looms over Europe’s banks Japan’s exports probably fell at a slower pace in July (Monday) Powell could signal that the Fed will cut rates further at Jackson Hole symposium (Thursday) We think that policymakers will cut rates... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curve distortion not a reason to ignore risk of a recession We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate to 8.00% (Thursday, 19.00 BST) GDP growth in Malaysia probably slowed a bit in Q2 (Friday, 05.00 BST) US consumer confidence likely to have... 15th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Real yields could rise if there really is a global recession US retail sales growth is likely to have edged down in July (13.30 BST) We think that US industrial production fell by about 0.1% m/m in July (14.15 BST) Interest rates will probably be left on hold... 14th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Spill-overs from Argentina likely to be limited US administration delays new tariffs on many Chinese imports until 15th December Germany’s GDP probably contracted in Q2, and euro-zone growth may be revised down We think that UK CPI inflation... 13th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling’s slide is unlikely to stop soon Argentina’s financial markets likely to remain under pressure as focus returns to default risk UK unemployment probably fell in June but is unlikely to go much lower (09.30 BST) We think that US... 12th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Italian government bond yields will probably rise further US core CPI inflation is likely to have held steady at 2.1% (Monday) We think that GDP fell in Germany, and growth was revised down in the euro-zone, in Q2 Euro-zone and US industrial production... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily No big bubble in bonds Japan’s GDP growth is likely to have slowed substantially in Q2 (00.50 BST) We think that China’s CPI inflation continued to rise in July (02.30 BST) The UK economy probably did not grow at all during... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Gauging the market fallout from China’s change of tack Further weakness in the Chinese renminbi is likely in our view We think that wage growth in Japan rose slightly in June (00.30 BST) The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave its policy rate... 5th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war not certain to force the Fed’s hand Unlike in Australia, interest rates are likely to be cut in New Zealand We think that GDP growth in the UK stagnated in Q2 (Friday) We expect the US ISM non-manufacturing index to have edged higher in... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities may stop underperforming, even in a no-deal Brexit We think that euro-zone core inflation fell in July, and GDP growth slowed in Q2 (10.00 BST) The FOMC will probably cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central... 30th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Swiss government bond yields could still fall further We expect the Bank of Japan to extend its forward guidance to summer 2020 or beyond Euro-zone ESI is likely to have fallen to about 102.0 in July (10.00 BST) US personal spending probably rose by... 29th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to be main driver of E-Z assets in the rest of 2019 We think that the ECB will cut rates in September and restart net asset purchases shortly after The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% (11.30 BST) US GDP growth... 25th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news already priced into UK assets Incoming UK Prime Minister Johnson to reveal his Brexit plans in acceptance speech We think that July’s PMIs remained consistent with a sharp slowdown in growth in the US … … and with subdued growth... 23rd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in the Swiss franc has further to run in our view Boris Johnson is likely to win the UK Conservative Party leadership election We expect interest rates to be cut by 50bp in Nigeria, but remain on hold in Hungary Euro-zone consumer confidence probably... 22nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Low credit spreads reflect excessive optimism We think that Japan’s headline CPI inflation dropped to 0.6% y/y in June (00.30 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have edged up in May (13.30 BST) University of Michigan US consumer confidence... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
