Capital Daily US employment report doesn’t alter our view of equities & bonds FOMC minutes for September to shed some light on the Fed’s thinking (Wednesday) The account of the last ECB meeting may show the extent of division in the council (Thursday) US CPI probably jumped, as... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only... 2nd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar likely to strengthen further as risk appetite sours Switzerland’s CPI inflation probably remained subdued in September (07.30 BST) We expect the policy rate to be cut in Iceland but remain unchanged in Poland US ADP’s measure of private-sector... 1st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s tax hike unlikely to have a big effect on markets there RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably... 30th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z government bond yields unlikely to rebound anytime soon Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC sovereign yields likely to rise despite dovish central banks Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Political deadlock is likely to cap sterling’s gains UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks... 24th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs point to further losses in euro-zone risky assets We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of... 23rd September 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in sterling is built on shaky ground Economic sentiment indices for the euro-zone and Germany probably edged up in September We expect the central banks of Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Egypt to cut rates Those in New Zealand... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Even without a recession, both bonds and equities could suffer A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer... 19th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in the US repo rate is not a major concern • The Fed is highly likely to deliver a 25bp cut at today’s FOMC meeting • We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp this evening • But both the Bank of England and BoJ will... 18th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Potential winners and losers from an oil shock We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also... 17th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Market fallout from Aramco attacks likely to remain small FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded... 16th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily ECB meeting doesn’t alter our already-bearish view of E-Z assets 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to rise further even if equities tumble The central bank of Poland is likely to stand pat, and strike a more hawkish tone Mexico’s industrial production probably edged down in July (12.00 BST) We think that both headline and core producer... 10th September 2019 · 5 mins read
