Capital Daily BoE likely to tighten if Brexit deal is agreed, raising £ & Gilt yields So much has been written about the rise in sterling and Gilt yields this week on renewed hopes of a Brexit deal that it is worth taking stock of what is now priced into the markets. 16th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US sanctions only worsen Turkish lira’s already-dire prospects We think that today’s rebound in the lira won’t last, even if the US doesn’t ratchet up its sanctions on Turkey. 15th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deal wouldn’t prevent equities from slumping in our view The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation unlikely to push bond yields lower High-level trade talks between the US & China probably won’t lead to a comprehensive deal The central bank of Peru might cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% (00.00 BST) We think that consumer... 10th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A pick-up in sterling looks increasingly far off Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably... 9th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB split unlikely to push up bond yields Fed Chair Jerome Powell might give hints about future path of interest rates Germany’s industrial production probably declined in August (07.00 BST) We think that US producer prices fell a bit last... 7th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US employment report doesn’t alter our view of equities & bonds FOMC minutes for September to shed some light on the Fed’s thinking (Wednesday) The account of the last ECB meeting may show the extent of division in the council (Thursday) US CPI probably jumped, as... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate credit spreads likely to start widening again soon UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only... 2nd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar likely to strengthen further as risk appetite sours Switzerland’s CPI inflation probably remained subdued in September (07.30 BST) We expect the policy rate to be cut in Iceland but remain unchanged in Poland US ADP’s measure of private-sector... 1st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s tax hike unlikely to have a big effect on markets there RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably... 30th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z government bond yields unlikely to rebound anytime soon Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC sovereign yields likely to rise despite dovish central banks Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Political deadlock is likely to cap sterling’s gains UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks... 24th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs point to further losses in euro-zone risky assets We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of... 23rd September 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in sterling is built on shaky ground Economic sentiment indices for the euro-zone and Germany probably edged up in September We expect the central banks of Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Egypt to cut rates Those in New Zealand... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Even without a recession, both bonds and equities could suffer A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer... 19th September 2019 · 7 mins read
