Capital Daily Another turning point for China’s stock market? China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. 14th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on antitrust & the US stock market Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reality check for China’s stock market: What’s next? China’s offshore equity market plunged today as the latest policy announcement from Beijing disappointed expectations. With much of the low hanging fruit (as far as valuations are concerned) now... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US market optimism may have further to run The optimism across US equity and corporate bond markets as the labour market proves resilient makes sense to us. We think it will continue, providing a tailwind for those assets. 7th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for Treasuries after blockbuster payrolls? The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy... 2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China vs Japan: a tale of two stock markets We doubt China’s equities will continue to outperform Japan’s through the end of 2025, despite their recent divergence. 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What China stimulus and Fed cuts mean for EM stocks Most EM equities have fared well over the past week or so amid encouraging signs from China, the first Fed rate cut and broadening EM easing cycles. We think these equities will continue to fare well... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will recession in Germany drag stocks there down? We expect equities in Germany to continue rising even though the economy there appears to be in another ‘technical’ recession. But we expect them to lag those elsewhere over the coming year or so. 25th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stimulus may not offer a lasting boost to stocks Policymakers in China announced major monetary and financial policy stimulus measures today, but we doubt these will be enough to drive a sustained rebound in China’s struggling stock market. 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
