Capital Daily Euro-zone banks’ outperformance unlikely to last The recent outperformance of euro-zone bank equities suggests that the ECB’s measures to mitigate the adverse effects of negative interest rates are having some success. But we still think that the... 12th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily EZ bond spreads likely to stay tight despite political uncertainty In spite of signs that political uncertainty is weighing on government bonds in Spain and Italy, there are a few reasons why we think that bond yield spreads there and in the rest of the euro-zone... 11th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar likely to stay strong as trade tensions continue Until President Trump’s negative comments today, rising optimism about the US-China trade negotiations had seen risky assets rise and the renminbi/dollar fall back below the symbolic 7 level. Other... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Looser fiscal policy unlikely to mean a bloodbath for Gilts Despite a slight dovish shift, the Bank of England’s decision to leave rates on hold today led to only a small market reaction. Speeches from both Conservative Chancellor Sajid Javid and his Labour... 7th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for global equities Optimism about a trade deal between the US and China has given a lift to global equities. But with a lot of good news already discounted and global economic growth likely to remain sluggish, we... 5th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US economy likely to deteriorate, keeping Treasury yields low Although the US GDP and employment data released this week were stronger than most analysts had expected, we continue to think that the Fed will have to cut rates again soon, as the economy slows... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Market forces unlikely to turn up the heat on the BoJ We have been arguing for a while that the BoJ wouldn’t ease monetary policy in 2019 and 2020 due to concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on the health of financial institutions. And... 31st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Soft landing for US economy unlikely to boost S&P 500 further Today’s US GDP report suggests the Fed is successfully piloting the economy towards a soft landing. Even so, the very slight slowdown in the rate of growth in Q3 – from 2.0% to 1.9% on a q/q... 30th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that Fed policy will push Treasury yields up further The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by nearly 40bp from its lows of two months ago. But in our view there is little scope for it to rise a lot further, given the outlook for Fed policy. 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields unlikely to revisit their lows this easing cycle Bond yields continued to rise ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and the S&P 500 opened at a new all-time high this morning. While we think the worst is yet to come for the global economy and suspect... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Draghi leaves, but ultra-low bond yields are probably here to stay Mario Draghi’s swansong at today’s ECB meeting caused few ripples in the markets. Nonetheless, we think that the recent decisions taken under his leadership to cut rates and relaunch QE set the stage... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to keep rising in Norway, but not in Sweden Higher policy rates in Norway and Sweden have not prevented bond yields there from falling since late last year. Yields have bounced back recently but, given our view about monetary policy, we think... 23rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily No clear sign of a bubble in either US real estate or equities Although the share prices of US homebuilders and companies more generally are both now near record highs, there doesn’t seem to be a bubble in either residential real estate or the stock market as a... 22nd October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed fortunes for UK equities amid prospect of new Brexit deal The comparatively poor performance of the FTSE 100 since 10th October is a reaction to the rebound in sterling since Boris Johnson agreed a new Brexit deal with other EU leaders rather than a... 21st October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Resilience of US equities and corporate bonds unlikely to last Equities and corporate bonds in the US have so far shrugged off the worrying signs for the global economy coming from lower oil prices. But we suspect that it won’t be long before slower global growth... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market bulls shouldn’t take much comfort from the mid-90s Stock market bulls hoping for a re-run of the mid-1990s, when the S&P 500 powered ahead despite a slowdown in corporate earnings, are likely to be disappointed. Unlike then, stocks have already had a... 17th October 2019 · 6 mins read
