Capital Daily CAD & NOK underperformance likely to end as oil rises further The jump in oil prices since OPEC+ announced a deeper-than-expected cut in production last week has done little to boost the G10 oil currencies. But we think that as oil rises further next year, the... 9th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls point to Treasury yields rising a touch further With November’s employment report confirming that the US labour market is still robust, it seems increasingly likely that the Fed has finished cutting interest rates for the time being. That would be... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Indian equities likely to fare better than bonds Today’s surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to leave interest rates on hold led to a jump in bond yields there but had limited impact on the Indian equity market. While we expect the... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Widening trade conflicts may hurt US equities more The performance of US equities since President Trump’s latest round of tariff threats suggests that investors continue to believe that foreign firms have more to lose from trade conflicts than those... 3rd December 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Higher yields unlikely in Germany, even if coalition breaks While its new leadership will probably seek to steer Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) to the left, we don’t expect a big change to the country’s fiscal policy anytime soon. So we think that the... 2nd December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lingering uncertainty limits the near-term upside for sterling Despite the growing likelihood of a Conservative majority, sterling has only edged higher in recent weeks. We think that the pound could rise further if the party win a majority, but that its stance... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Low VIX is not a recipe for disaster We don’t think that the very low level of the VIX index in the run-up to the Thanksgiving weekend is a sign that investors are too complacent, and unlike last year we doubt that this will be followed... 27th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily RBA likely to launch QE in 2020, boosting Aussie bonds In a much-awaited speech on unconventional monetary policy, RBA Governor Philip Lowe set a high bar for launching quantitative easing (QE) in Australia. But against a backdrop of stubbornly-low... 26th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Grim outlook for euro-zone growth suggests more euro weakness Our view that the gap between GDP growth in the US and the euro-zone will not close anytime soon is one of the key reasons why we forecast that the euro will weaken further against the US dollar next... 25th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EZ yields likely to fall further as pleas for fiscal stimulus ignored The decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November reinforces our view that growth in the monetary union will deteriorate further in the coming months. With governments so far resisting pressure... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Trump has not been kind to equities exposed to China While the equity prices of companies highly exposed to China may appear to have been unaffected by the ongoing trade war, that is because most of them are in the information technology (IT) sector... 21st November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily UK election campaign could be the calm before the storm Although UK markets have had a volatile year, driven in large part by the twists and turns around Brexit, the first few weeks of the election campaign have been fairly quiet. While that may reflect... 20th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Prospects for government bonds brighter in Australia than the US While we think that the Fed’s easing cycle has now come to an end, the minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce our view that the Australian central bank is far from done loosening policy. With... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Global equities remain vulnerable even if a trade deal is finalised With the global economy likely to remain in the doldrums, and a US/China trade deal now largely priced in, we think that global equities will struggle to make further headway given how far they have... 18th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is the CAPE covering up the true valuation of the S&P 500? Although the S&P 500 has now risen by well over 20% this year following a further surge this week, Shiller’s widely-watched cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) for the index has only edged... 15th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar bear case is unconvincing While the US dollar has strengthened over recent days and remains near its highest level since 2002 on a trade-weighted basis, investors and forecasters appear increasingly bearish on the outlook for... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
