Capital Daily Presidential election could yet weigh down US equities In our view, the lack of reaction so far in the US equity market to the election campaign may be too complacent. We think that the substantial downside risks posed by a Bernie Sanders presidency could... 10th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market could matter more for US equities later this year January’s employment report has unusually taken a back seat in markets today, as the coronavirus outbreak still dominates the headlines. However, that might not last – the health of the US labour... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Investors appear to be taking their cue from SARS Judging by the rebound in equity markets this week, investors are banking on the coronavirus outbreak in China being brought under control quickly. While that may yet prove too optimistic, the market... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in bonds may continue to unwind While the yields of most 10-year developed and emerging market government bonds have risen today, they are still substantially lower than prior to the coronavirus outbreak. Unless the fallout from the... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US equity market seems complacent about a Sanders presidency There so far seems to have been little reaction in the US stock market to the recent surge in support for Bernie Sanders, despite the major shift in policy that his presidency could represent. That... 4th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in China’s local-currency bonds likely to continue Regardless of how the coronavirus epidemic evolves, we think that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will loosen policy further in 2020, and by more than investors currently anticipate. If we are right... 3rd February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily UK markets have scope to rally after Brexit As the clock ticks down towards Brexit, it is worth taking stock of where the many twists and turns over the past four years have left UK financial markets. Our view is that, having fallen a long way... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Path towards tighter BoE policy, and higher Gilt yields, is clearer The Bank of England left rates unchanged today, and we think that it will continue to keep policy on hold in 2020, before hiking in 2021. As such, we expect the 10-year UK government bond (Gilt) yield... 30th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market reaction to virus outbreak seems overdone A sharp fall in bond yields triggered by growing concerns about the coronavirus outbreak means that the US yield curve is close to inverting again. But in our view, investors anticipating further... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in gold may soon be over The rally in the price of gold of the past few days has coincided with the US 10-year TIPS yield breaking below zero for the first time since September. But unless the coronavirus outbreak becomes a... 28th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think there is more room for yields to fall in Greece than Italy The yields of government bonds in Italy and Greece have fallen particularly sharply today, but only in the latter do we think that they will continue to edge down. In fact, we suspect that yields in... 27th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rest of 2020 likely to be brighter for sterling Sterling has failed to rise so far in 2020. However, we expect it to pick up over the course of this year, as the UK economy starts to turn a corner. 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds likely to fare nowhere near as well this year Even if a hunt for yield drives the credit spreads of US corporate bonds through their post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows, the returns from these assets – and by extension US equities – are... 22nd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed unlikely to have played a big role in the latest equity rally Although the Fed’s renewed expansion of its balance sheet has coincided with a surge in the S&P 500 since October, we are sceptical that it has been a major factor behind the rally. 20th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lira & peso stability unlikely to last While the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso were two of the worst performing currencies in 2019, both have stabilised in recent months. But we don’t expect that resilience to last. 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Swiss central bank likely to keep resisting a stronger franc Despite renewed appetite for risk recently, the Swiss franc has continued to rise against most currencies. This might reflect a view that Switzerland’s central bank will refrain from intervening in... 16th January 2020 · 6 mins read
