Capital Daily Biden’s comeback a mixed blessing for US equities In an otherwise gloomy week for US equities, the resurgence of Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination provides, at least at face value, one piece of good news for them. But... 4th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Powell Put may not be enough While it appears that central banks are preparing to once again ride to the rescue, further monetary stimulus by itself may not be enough to generate a sustained recovery in risky assets. 2nd March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Markets may force the Fed’s hand The S&P 500’s 14% plunge this week is the fastest such correction on record; the VIX index is now at its highest level since the euro-zone crisis in 2012; and the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen... 28th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Re-examining the market reaction since the coronavirus outbreak Equities outside of China have continued to sell off today as the number of international new coronavirus cases has overtaken those reported by Beijing for the first time since the outbreak began. By... 27th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities likely to bounce back if virus fears fade A surprising feature of the recent sell-off in global equities is the underperformance of the UK. There are still reasons to think UK equities will outperform in the coming years, but this may have to... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news about COVID-19 already in the bond market Investors are now pricing in a large amount of monetary policy loosening in the countries where government bond yields have dropped the most since the coronavirus epidemic started. This suggests that... 25th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Virus spread challenges our forecasts for equities and bonds The likelihood that the coronavirus will take a greater toll on China’s economy and spread more widely around the world than we had initially assumed suggests that there are downside risks to our... 24th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Australia’s currency and bond yields likely to fall further While Australia’s currency and 10-year government bond yields have already dropped a long way this year, we think that they will fall further as a weak domestic economy prompts the RBA to loosen... 20th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in gold will last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the rally in gold will end before long. 19th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities still appear to price in a benign virus outcome While global equities have taken a hit today, the bigger picture is that they have recovered most or all of their initial falls after the coronavirus outbreak first became a major concern a month ago... 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities likely to outperform bonds in Japan, despite recession We don’t expect Japan’s economy to bounce back quickly from Q4’s contraction. But even if we are right, bonds may still not do as well as equities. 17th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors unlikely to show much love for the euro anytime soon While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK Cabinet reshuffle deals our forecasts a stronger hand The surprise change of Chancellor as part of today’s UK Cabinet reshuffle bolsters our view that looser fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy are on the way. In turn, this supports our forecasts... 13th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Investors dismiss Sanders’ chances at their peril While there is a long way yet to go in the race, Bernie Sanders’ win in the New Hampshire primary has cemented his position as the front runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Although... 12th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US equities appear undervalued compared to Treasuries It is more than two decades since the Fed famously compared the yields of US equities and Treasuries in its semi-annual report to Congress, the latest instalment of which Jerome Powell delivered today... 11th February 2020 · 6 mins read
