Capital Daily Euro likely to recover if the ECB does more for Italian bonds We think that today’s small rise in the euro could be a sign of things to come, assuming that the ECB acts to contain Italian bond spreads. 29th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Spotlight on US mega-caps as earnings season gets into full swing Earnings announcements due this week from the five largest listed companies in the US merit particularly close attention given how well their share prices have performed in relative terms over the... 28th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone redenomination risk a renewed concern After yet another inconclusive European summit there are signs that investors’ concerns about the solidity of the monetary union continue to linger, despite the ECB’s extensive support. 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields unlikely to rise much anytime soon US Treasury yields have continued to edge down recently despite the ongoing rally in equity markets, and we doubt that they will rise much any time soon either. 23rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lower oil prices unlikely to hold most equity markets back While the plunge in oil prices may have played some part in yesterday’s equity market sell-off, we doubt that oil will have that big of a bearing on most developed world equity indices over the coming... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB still likely to drive BTP-Bund spread back down this year While the widening of the spread between the yields of 10-year Italian BTPs and German Bunds has raised doubts about the ECB’s ability and/or willingness to do “whatever it takes” to prevent borrowing... 21st April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Energy returns likely to underwhelm even if oil prices rebound While we expect energy prices to recover a long way in percentage terms, we think that returns will underwhelm, and doubt that they will exceed those from global equities by much. 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Behemoths now driving relentless outperformance of US equities One intriguing development in equity markets since the outbreak of coronavirus has been the S&P 500’s continued outperformance of many benchmark indices outside the US. For example, since 19th... 16th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM currency weakness unlikely to last Emerging market currencies have generally fallen back over the past couple of days as the equity market rally has stalled and oil prices have dropped. Although they may face further turbulence, we... 15th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in markets likely to keep favouring those hit hardest Across developed and emerging economies, those stock markets and currencies that had fallen the most after fears emerged about the coronavirus outbreak have generally bounced back more strongly since... 14th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dividend futures suggest a lot of bad news is discounted in stocks We have argued that a sustained recovery in equity prices is unlikely until clear evidence emerges that coronavirus is being brought under control around the world. That still seems some way off, so... 9th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB more important than Eurogroup for E-Z bond yields The overall small market reaction to yesterday’s inconclusive Eurogroup meeting supports our view that ECB policy, rather than the outlook for public finances, will be the main driver of euro-zone... 8th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM currency rebound likely to continue As equity markets continue to rebound on hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be peaking, emerging market currencies are also strengthening against the US dollar. Provided that the pandemic does... 7th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Signs of slowing virus spread a good omen for global equities Global equities have rallied today on tentative signs that the coronavirus pandemic is being brought under control in Europe, and positive signs in parts of the US. While it is too soon to know for... 6th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Oil deal wouldn’t alter the short-term outlook for petro-currencies We doubt that the rally in oil prices of the past couple of days will last, even if Russia and Saudi Arabia agree a deal to cut output. And while we do think that oil prices will rebound in the second... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A short recession could mean US equities bounce back quickly Measures to contain the coronavirus will probably cause the one of the biggest ever reductions in output in the US. But if we are right that it will not last very long, equities may be past the worst... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
