Capital Daily Bunds may not regain their status as Europe’s safest haven We expect the gap between the yields of 10-year Swiss and German government bonds to fall further back below zero, despite turning positive recently for the first time this century. 28th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Outperformance of E-Z over US equities likely to continue As equity markets have been generally edging higher over the past week, one thing that has been overlooked is the improvement in the relative performance of euro-zone equities. Provided a renewed... 27th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite renewed risks in HK, China’s stimulus may help equities While the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities today should boost the economic recovery there and in the rest of the world, an escalation of tensions in Hong Kong, and between China... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equity rally may have further to go, despite subdued PMIs A lot has been made of the divergence between global equities, which have bounced back strongly over the past two months, and the dire incoming economic data, like the latest PMI surveys. But those... 21st May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in sterling could have further to run If we are right in thinking that some sort of compromise can still be reached on a UK-EU trade deal, the tentative recovery in the pound over the past few days could continue. 20th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Common debt proposal adds further support for periphery bonds While the Franco-German proposal to issue common EU debt to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic is limited in size and some way from gaining final political agreement, it adds support to our... 19th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily S&P likely to rise further as economy recovers While the rally in the S&P 500 has lost some steam over the past week, history suggests that it will regain ground and some more in the coming months provided the US economy recovers. 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the pull-back in US equities will continue The break in the rally in US equities this week is unsurprising, given just how rapidly they had recovered. While they could fall further in the near term, we doubt US equities will revisit the lows... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US-China risks significant, but unlikely to cause another rout We don’t expect that US-China tensions will escalate into a full-blown “financial war”. Nonetheless, that possibility, and the likelihood that tensions will remain high ahead of the US elections in... 13th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of negative Fed funds futures Although the rates implied by some federal funds futures contracts maturing next year have recently fallen below zero, they may not be very accurate reflections of investors’ expectations for the rate... 11th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite legal risks, we still expect Italian bond yields to fall Political and legal uncertainty means that investors may continue to discount a small, but non-negligible, probability of a break-up of the euro-zone. Nonetheless, we remain of the view that the ECB... 7th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in the S&P 500 might have further to go A lot has been made of the divergence between the S&P 500 which is up a bit today, and the dire incoming economic data, like the latest ADP payrolls survey. The contrast between the two has led to... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Battling virus also key to outlook for EMEA & LatAm equities Although MSCI’s indices of emerging market (EM) equities in EMEA and Latin America have recovered some ground since 23rd March, the bigger picture is that they have underperformed equities elsewhere... 5th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions unlikely to hold equities back for long Global equities have fallen back in recent days and could come under more pressure in the near-term if tensions between the US and China continue to rise. However, the latest flare-up between them... 4th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM equities may soon start outperforming again Although equities have fallen back a bit over the past couple of days, April was one of the best months in years, if not decades, for many stock markets. One feature of the rally has been the... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Awful economic data need not stop equities from rising further Although equity markets have fallen back a little today, the contrast between their rapid rebound in recent weeks and the dismal news on the state of the global economy remains stark. While we think... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
