Capital Daily Surging case numbers may threaten US equities’ outperformance The sectoral composition of the US stock market helped it to hold up better than its European counterpart as the coronavirus spread around the world earlier in the year. But the more recent trend of... 29th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Resurgence in COVID-19 cases a key risk to our S&P 500 forecast Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in due course is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 being small and localised. That assumption is being challenged by a resurgence in... 25th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Improving business expectations suggest Dax may rise further The sharp rebound in the Ifo business expectations index in June supports our view that the Dax 30 will gain further ground in the reminder of this year. 24th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US election could weigh on equities in the second half of 2020 While we have been sceptical of the argument that shifts in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the upcoming US elections have been a major driver of US equity markets this year, that... 22nd June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in the euro has further to run While the euro has already benefited significantly from a step-up in policymakers’ efforts to avoid another debt crisis, we think that there is scope for it to rise further this year. 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Returns from gilts likely to be paltry even if policy remains loose Gilt yields have risen slightly today, but we doubt that they will climb much further, given we expect the Bank of England to keep policy ultra-loose for many years. However, since we also doubt the... 18th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market wobbles more likely than a renewed rout Although worries about second waves of coronavirus are likely to persist in the coming months, we do not expect such concerns to weigh on equity prices for long, just as they have not done recently... 17th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fed’s policy actions bode well for risky assets Even if the Fed’s latest decision to tweak its buying of corporate bonds in the secondary market is hard to justify, given the improvement in market conditions over the past few months, it reinforces... 16th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities likely to bounce back if virus outbreaks remain localised Concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 have prompted a renewed sell-off in global equities. Our view is that this sell-off won’t last, and that most risky assets will make more headway this year, as... 15th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Second waves of COVID-19 the biggest risk to equities Neither the Fed’s latest projections for the US economy nor the waning popularity of President Trump and his party are convincing explanations for yesterday’s slump in stock markets after their... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and S&P 500 likely to diverge again before long We doubt that today’s joint sharp falls in the S&P 500 and the 10-year US Treasury yield are a sign of things to come. 11th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in US payroll conducive of further gains in US equities Today’s far better-than-expected US Employment Report helped push the S&P 500 up by another 2%. Overall, we remain of the view that the index will make further gains between now and end-2021 and will... 5th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB reinforces case for optimism on euro-zone assets The ECB’s decision to increase its asset purchases by €600bn, and the resulting positive reaction in markets, supports our view that policymakers’ efforts to contain strains in the currency union will... 4th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in commodity currencies has further to run in our view The recovery in the price of Brent crude oil, which briefly rose above $40 per barrel today, has given a boost to the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on oil and other... 3rd June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Brexit uncertainty likely to continue to cloud sterling outlook While sterling has rallied sharply over the past couple of days, its performance had previously lagged that of other risky currencies recently. That appears to partly reflect renewed concerns about... 2nd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US equities may prove less resilient in renewed US-China spat Equity markets have struggled to make much headway this week as the continued escalation of tensions between the US and China weighs on investors’ still-recovering confidence. While it is difficult to... 29th May 2020 · 8 mins read
