Capital Daily We think that Fed policy will keep Treasury yields well anchored Despite signs the economic recovery in the US is slowing we expect the FOMC to shy away from making any major policy changes when its meeting concludes later on Wednesday. But we would not rule out a... 29th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in “safe” government bonds may soon run out of steam It is hard to envisage much more of a rally in many “safe”, long-dated, government bonds, given policymakers’ reluctance to cut interest rates below, or in some cases further below, zero. 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sell-off points to potential shifting pattern in US equity markets While we continue to think that equities will make some further headway over the rest of the year, the sectors that have fared the best this year may underperform in the coming months. 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lira stability unlikely to last Despite the Turkish lira’s remarkable stability over the past few weeks, and the central bank of Turkey’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold, we continue to think that it will lose further... 23rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery Fund adds to positive outlook for E-Z periphery bonds Investors have welcomed EU leaders’ deal on a joint Recovery Fund, which strengthens our view that euro-zone peripheral government bond spreads will remain low. 21st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily EM currencies vulnerable, but we think they will rebound further As equity markets have struggled to make further headway over the past month, the rally in emerging market (EM) currencies has also stalled. But we think that both will resume eventually, provided... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers’ actions may boost the euro further this year Failure by EU leaders to approve the Recovery Fund this weekend would probably weigh on the euro in the near term, but we still think that policymakers will eventually reach an agreement and provide... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily OBR’s debt warnings unlikely to derail Gilts Yesterday’s warning from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that the government’s UK debt/GDP ratio could balloon to more than 500% during the next fifty years in a “downside” scenario has... 15th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 earnings season to corroborate varied performance of sectors The Q2 earnings season in the US, which kicks off this week, will shed more light on how companies in different sectors of the stock market have been adversely affected by the spread of coronavirus... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect further big gains for the renminbi Although they have fallen back a little today, over the past week Chinese equity markets have surged and the renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar. While both those trends may continue for a... 10th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think that sterling has further to climb Despite the UK government’s refusal to request an extension to the Brexit transition period before the 30th June deadline, sterling has fared well in July so far. This seems to be mostly due to... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing policy support may spur further gains in risky assets We think that there is scope for spreads of investment-grade corporate bonds and euro-zone peripheral government bonds to decline further against the backdrop of a gradually recovering global economy... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in TIPS yields unlikely to be reversed any time soon The yield of 10-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has now fallen to around the same level that it was in the spring of 2013, shortly before it surged. Nonetheless, we think that... 7th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Employment rebound points to further rally in US equities Today’s far-better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls has helped push the S&P 500 up by another 1%. And so long as the US economy continues to recover and the recent spike in coronavirus cases there... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Chance of Democratic landslide increases risk to US equities The rising odds of a Democratic landslide in November’s US election could become an increasingly important factor for US equities in the second half of the year. 1st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rise in virus cases unlikely to cause renewed market panic Even if the number of new coronavirus cases in the US continues to rise, we don’t expect to see a re-run of the financial market panic that took place in March. 30th June 2020 · 7 mins read
