Capital Daily Are investors braced for too much post-election volatility? Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Who is still afraid of inflation? While inflation in the US and elsewhere has generally converged towards target this year, it might continue to haunt central bankers for a while yet, and in turn keep investors on their toes. 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of today’s sell-off in Gilts The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less... 30th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on markets & the US election With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect both US stocks and bonds to rally before long Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But we doubt that pattern... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies? We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long... 22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 1730253600 Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
Capital Daily Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB easing unlikely to ease peripheral fiscal concerns The dovish tone at today’s ECB monetary policy meeting supports our view that the ECB will cut by 25bp at the December meeting. However, the risks to our policy rate forecasts are increasingly skewed... 17th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025 Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
