Capital Daily We doubt the euro will rally much further this year The recent resurgence of coronavirus cases in the euro-zone is probably one reason that the euro‘s rally against the US dollar has stalled. Although our baseline assumption is that the virus will... 27th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the underperformance of energy stocks We suspect that some of the recent poor performance of energy stocks will unwind in the short-term if, as we forecast, oil prices grind higher. Nonetheless, we think the longer-term outlook for the... 26th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for dividend payments is not as gloomy as it was Although dividend payments have fallen during coronavirus, that does not mean that the outlook for stock markets is poor. On the contrary, a decline in dividends has often been followed by a surge in... 24th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the DNC might signal for US equities In our view, US equities would do a bit better over the next few years if Donald Trump wins re-election than under Joe Biden. However, the tone of this week’s Democratic National Convention (DNC)... 21st August 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The coronavirus crisis six months on Today marks six months since the coronavirus crisis started to weigh heavily on global markets. Although the S&P 500 is now back where it was on 19th February, many sectors of the US market, equities... 19th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fading uncertainty could give risky assets a further boost Investors have come to expect less volatility in the S&P 500 as the index has recovered to within a whisker of its all-time high. Nonetheless, they are still anticipating considerably more volatility... 18th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal impasse points to political risks for US equities The failure of US legislators to agree a new fiscal support package to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has so far not made much of a dent in equity markets. But it highlights... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the S&P 500’s rebound While the continued strength of the S&P 500, which at the time of writing is within a whisker of a new all-time high, is remarkable, we don’t think it necessarily reflects excessive optimism among... 13th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that higher real yields are about to undermine equities Growing optimism that the coronavirus can be brought under control appears to explain why this week has seen both a rise in real yields and healthy gains in some equity markets. We expect most equity... 12th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lira risks remain to the downside While a limited policy response may create some breathing space, risks to the Turkish lira remain significant and we would not be surprised if it fell further over the coming weeks. 11th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions likely to weigh on HK equities and renminbi We think that rising US-China tensions will cause equities in Hong Kong, which are down by close to 1% today, and the renminbi to end 2020 slightly weaker than their current levels. 10th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 underpinned by improving labour market Today’s US Employment Report suggests that the recovery in the economy remains firmly intact despite the recent pick-up in coronavirus cases. This bolsters our view that the US stock market will not... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Prospects for monetary policy suggest upside for cable is limited Although a significant decline in the gap between the real yields of US TIPS and UK index-linked Gilts appears to have contributed to the sizeable rise in dollar/sterling (cable) since the end of June... 6th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower safe real yields could be a fillip to risky assets Although we did not expect Treasuries to come under fire after US equities turned a corner in March, we have revised down our previous end-2020, 2021 and 2022 forecasts for the 10-year yield to 0.5%... 5th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the dollar is at risk of losing reserve status While we think there is scope for the US dollar to weaken further, suggestions that its role as the world’s key reserve currency is in question are well wide of the mark in our view. 4th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Examining the outlook for key equity indices in the euro-zone We suspect that MSCI’s index of German equities will stop outperforming its indices of equities in other major euro-zone countries in the coming months, even if the economy holds up better in Germany... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
