Capital Daily We don’t think China’s bond yields will defy gravity forever On its own, the inclusion of China’s government bonds in another key benchmark index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to financial markets. But there are other good reasons to suspect... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt rate hike will prevent further falls in the Turkish lira While the Turkish lira has rallied today following the central bank’s surprise decision to raise its policy rate, we think that it will fall back before long unless the central bank follows up today’s... 24th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Real rate differentials will continue to weigh on the $ in our view We doubt that the recent pull-back in US inflation expectations will continue. This feeds into our view that the dollar is more likely to weaken than to strengthen over the next few years. 23rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Economy probably more important than politics for US equities Despite the perceived risk of a disputed US election, we think that the US stock market will recover from its recent wobble, and go on to make further gains, as the economy gradually recovers, aided... 21st September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Second waves and the risks to equity markets Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in the next year or so is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 remaining fairly localised. That assumption is being challenged by a... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect UK monetary policy to keep Gilt yields low Gilt yields have declined following today’s MPC meeting and we expect them to remain low for the foreseeable future even if the Bank of England doesn’t cut its policy rate below zero. 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds may continue to shrug off sub-par economy We suspect that US corporate bond spreads will fall further, even if defaults increase as the economy remains under par. 15th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Suga, Abe and the outlook for the yen While Japan’s incoming Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, may push for further monetary easing and a weaker yen, we think that, if anything, the risks to the yen lie to the upside. 14th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at Europe’s recent equity outperformance vs. US The recent pull-back of MSCI’s USA Index of US mid-and large-cap equities has been accompanied by some unwinding of its relentless outperformance of MSCI’s Europe Index of their European counterparts... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We forecast the euro and BTPs to gain a bit more ground While their rallies have stalled recently, we think that both the euro and Italian government bonds (BTPs) will gain some more ground over the coming year. 10th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of recent moves in currency markets While the recent loss in appetite for risk and plunge in oil prices appear to explain some of the recent moves in currency markets, we do not think that they tell the full story. 9th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar stability may prove temporary While the US dollar has stabilised recently, we think that the risks to the greenback remain to the downside. 8th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the equity market sell-off The sharp falls in US equities over the past couple of days have drawn comparisons both to the much larger, pandemic-induced stock market rout earlier this year, and – because tech stocks suffered... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the underperformance of UK equities Despite a partial reversal today, MSCI’s UK Index has dramatically underperformed its equity indices for other major developed markets in recent months, falling as the latter have risen in local... 2nd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Putting real yield shifts into context when considering the dollar Last week’s change in the Fed’s inflation-targeting regime has pushed the dollar down to its lowest level in more than two years. Nonetheless, we do not expect the greenback to fall by as much as it... 1st September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed’s new policy framework likely to keep yields low The new policy framework set out in Fed Chairman Powell’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium yesterday points to even looser monetary policy for even longer. In our view, that... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
