Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to rise much further The fact that last night’s US Presidential debate didn’t appear to reduce the chances of a Democratic clean sweep at the upcoming US election, and the optimistic comments on the fiscal negotiations by... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Several factors suggest resilience of US tech sector may not last The US equity market appears to have so far shrugged off a wave of poor news for the tech sector. We think that this reflects renewed coronavirus worries, which have supported tech stocks relative to... 21st October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Safe havens providing scant shelter The past week has delivered further evidence that “safe” assets now provide less of a hedge against moves in equities than they have done previously. We think that this reflects changes in how... 20th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We forecast that the 10-year Bund yield will end 2020 at -0.50% We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German Government (Bund) yield will end this year at -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed surge in COVID... 19th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think fundamentals favour further RMB appreciation In our view, the near-record gap between government bond yields in the US and China is one reason to think that the climb in the renminbi against the US dollar has further to run. 16th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt rally in Australian government bonds will unwind soon We are not surprised by the big rally in Australian government bonds today and expect the 10-year yield to settle around its current level as the RBA ups its purchases. 15th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Spotlight on US equities as Q3 earnings season kicks off While the S&P 500 is now ~5% above its pre-pandemic level, we don’t think that this reflects excessive optimism among investors. One way to see this is to take a close look at analysts’ expectations... 14th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for US inflation compensation Although the US inflation data released earlier today did not generate much of a reaction, we still suspect that market-based measures of inflation expectations will rise further in the coming months... 13th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How post-election fiscal stimulus might affect US equities Investors’ recent fixation on the US election and the effect it might have on the shape of future fiscal stimulus suggests that markets would react positively to a Democratic clean sweep. But whilst... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think strength in emerging Asian currencies may continue EM Asia currencies have weathered all the uncertainty about the US elections reasonably well recently, and we suspect they will appreciate further against the dollar in the coming quarters... 8th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that the Fed will let Treasury yields rise further If the recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield continues, how the Federal Reserve responds may have some key implications for many markets. 6th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US stock market’s latest performance The resilience of the US stock market since Donald Trump revealed he had COVID-19 suggests investors are not worried for now about the implications for the economy. While this is presumably mainly... 5th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Politics the focus for now, but not key to the outlook for S&P 500 The negative reaction in equity markets to the news that President Trump has tested positive for coronavirus is no surprise, given the potential implications for November’s election. But it is worth... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities in EMEA and LatAm may claw back some lost ground We think that equities in EMEA and Latin America will claw back a bit of the ground they have lost relative to those in Emerging Asia recently, if progress is made in containing COVID-19 and the... 1st October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US election uncertainty While last night’s US presidential debate had limited impact on financial markets, investors continue to worry about the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. 30th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect further monetary easing to reduce yields much Some further monetary easing already appears to be priced into money markets in many developed economies, and while we expect additional stimulus measures, we don’t think that this would necessarily... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
