Capital Daily We think the Aussie will appreciate further next year The Australian dollar has been one of best performing currencies over recent week. We think that it will continue to appreciate against the US dollar over the next couple of years, but that its rise... 14th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily One last cliff-hanger for sterling? With the currency markets jittery as the clock winds down on the UK-EU Brexit negotiations, it is worth assessing the risk of another major fall in the pound. 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PEPP recalibration suggests E-Z peripheral yields may fall further The policy changes announced today by the ECB confirm that the central bank will continue to underpin the sovereign bond market for some time yet and support our view that euro-zone peripheral... 10th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Comparing the outlook for equities in Latam and EM Asia We think that the dramatic outperformance recently of equities in Latin America in general versus their peers in EM Asia has much further to run, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 9th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in the renminbi may have further to go The renminbi’s continued appreciation since good news about vaccines began to emerge a month or so ago might seem strange, since it was one of the best performers during the early stages of the... 8th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at the evidence of froth in the US stock market Back in the summer, we argued that while some segments of the US stock market were starting to look a bit frothy, there was no evidence that the S&P 500 overall was unsustainably high. But with the... 7th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US labour market will hold back its stock market US equity markets largely shrugged off the disappointing US Employment Report. We think that markets will continue to look through short-term economic disruption from rising COVID-19 cases and focus... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Why we think the weaker dollar/stronger equities pattern will last While both the rally in equities and the decline in the US dollar are likely to slow down from here in our view, we think that the relationship between them will remain strong for some time. 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Brexit probably more key than vaccines for sterling in near term Sterling was largely unmoved by news that the UK would be the first developed economy to approve a COVID-19 vaccine on Wednesday. In our view, this is because the key driver of the country’s exchange... 2nd December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for global equities We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, even if they don’t continue to rise as rapidly as they did last month. 1st December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the euro will make further ground against the dollar The euro has risen to its highest level against the US dollar since the middle of 2018, at the time of writing. And we think that it will gain further ground in the next couple years against a... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Vaccines and the outlook for yields in Australia, NZ and Sweden Given this month’s positive news on vaccines, we no longer expect further monetary policy easing in a handful of advanced economies where we had done previously. But the bigger picture is that bond... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal, not monetary, policy may pose a bigger risk to equities Although this month’s gains in global equities can be largely attributed to the reaction to the US elections and encouraging news about potential vaccines against COVID-19, the rally since the spring... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt bond yields will rise much even if equities rally more We think that the relatively muted reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a... 25th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Further dollar weakness may be path of least resistance Although the US dollar has strengthened a little this week, it is about 2% weaker on a trade-weighted basis since the US elections three weeks ago. And it is now weaker in trade-weighted terms than it... 24th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the market reaction to vaccine developments We think that the relatively muted gains in most equity markets in recent weeks reflects how positive news about potential COVID-19 vaccines has been partly offset by the renewed surge of infections... 23rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
