Capital Daily Biden, Yellen, and the dollar With Joe Biden’s inauguration underway, what will the new US administration mean for the US dollar? 20th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at US equities as earnings season kicks off Even if the US stock market is not in a bubble, it could still be vulnerable if analysts’ expectations for corporate earnings are too rosy. On balance, though, we don’t think this is the case. 19th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the renminbi to resume its rally against the US dollar While the recent rise in Treasury yields may have contributed to a very small unwinding of last year’s significant rally in the renminbi against the US dollar, we expect China’s currency to strengthen... 18th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves, banking sectors and economies We doubt that yield curves in major developed economies will continue to steepen, and in turn expect the recent outperformance of banking sectors in stock markets to fade. 14th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of the outlook for US inflation Although US consumer price inflation remained low at the end of last year, we expect it to rebound before long. (See US Key Data & Events.) As a result, we suspect that inflation compensation will... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think US dollar upside remains limited by loose Fed policy Although it has strengthened over the past few days, we expect the US dollar will continue to weaken gradually this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and risk appetite stays strong while the... 12th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Chinese equities to continue to underperform Chinese equities have underperformed those in other emerging markets since the vaccine news in November, and we expect this to continue in 2021. 11th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The economy, monetary policy and the S&P 500’s valuation We doubt that the valuation of the S&P 500 will prevent it from making further gains over the next few years. After all, big falls in its valuation usually have their roots in either a weakening US... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risky asset prices will rise further Risky asset prices have continued to march higher lately, despite some alarming news. But we don’t think the market is in a state of excessive optimism, and suspect risky assets could continue to... 7th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the recent rise in Treasury yields will continue We continue to forecast that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end this year and next at 1%, even though it has crept above that level as the Democrats look set to take control of Congress. 6th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily COVID-19, US political uncertainty & Georgia on our mind While we expect that the coronavirus pandemic will continue to be the dominant driver of financial markets over the next few months, uncertainty around US politics may return to play an important role... 5th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily UK stock market shrugs off near-term economic pain The particularly strong performance of equities in the UK today may seem at odds with the rapid rise in coronavirus cases there and the likelihood of further restrictions on activity. But provided... 4th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily New virus strain and the outlook for risky assets and the dollar The imposition of tighter restrictions on activity in the UK following the rapid growth of a new and faster-spreading strand of coronavirus and the subsequent decision by many countries to halt travel... 21st December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Currency “manipulators” and the outlook for the dollar Regardless of the eventual consequences of the US Treasury’s decision yesterday to label Switzerland and Vietnam currency manipulators, we think that there are good reasons why the US dollar will... 17th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Fed to keep long-term yields low Regardless of how exactly the Fed tweaks the details of its asset purchases at its FOMC meeting today, we ultimately expect it to ensure that long-term bond yields remain low for at least the next... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
