Capital Daily What to make of another yield curve inversion The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields has ‘inverted’ again, partly because the nomination of Bessent as US Treasury secretary has eased fiscal concerns. But we forecast the curve to... 25th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over? We don’t think the S&P 500’s AI tailwind has run out of puff yet, despite the seemingly lukewarm market reaction to Nvidia’s latest profit result. 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will inflation worries keep UK yields as high as US ones? Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall. 20th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Upward pressure on JGB yields could ease next year We doubt upward pressure on Japan’s long-term bond yields will persist for long, as the Bank of Japan tightens policy by less than investors anticipate and yields in the US remain quite stable. 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US equities to remain bond-proof Although last week’s pull-back in the S&P 500 coincided with a big increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, we don’t think this marks the start of prolonged period of weakness in US equities driven by... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The poor prospects for China’s stock market We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the Treasury yield curve? We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation might soon be front-page news again While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. 13th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro parity is back on the cards The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than... 11th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Capital Daily Will Trump really be good for US equities? We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. 6th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What risk does election pose to Treasuries? Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the... 5th November 2024 · 5 mins read
