Capital Daily We doubt the calm in the Treasury market will last After a turbulent first quarter of 2021, the Treasury market has been remarkably calm so far in the second. This is despite growing concerns about inflation. We think, however, that long-dated yields... 3rd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US core inflation may push up Treasury yields before long The rise in US core inflation in May adds to evidence that price pressures are building across the economy, which supports our view that Treasury yields will resume their rise before long. 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs, bond yields & the euro The latest flash PMIs reinforce our view that the economy will continue to grow at a faster pace in the US than in the euro-zone in the next few years. This feeds into our forecast that long-dated... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds versus equities The relative valuation of stock and corporate bond markets continues to make us doubt that equities in general are in a bubble. It remains very different to the situation before collapses in the US... 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect gold to lose some of its lustre as real yields rebound While the recent rebound in the price of gold may owe something to greater demand for safe havens in response to faltering equity prices, as well as to cryptocurrencies coming under pressure, most of... 18th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long We don’t expect the recent weakness in the US dollar to persist. On the contrary, we think that it will strengthen against most major currencies as economic growth in the US outpaces that in the rest... 12th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sell-off in the NASDAQ The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 was down again today at the time of writing, bringing its slump since a record intraday high on 29 th April to around 6%. Five of the largest “big tech” firms (Amazon, Apple... 11th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, bond yields and the Fed Although long-term nominal US Treasury yields have remained broadly stable over the past month or so in the face of rising inflation compensation, we don’t expect this to last. 10th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the 10-year Gilt yield will rise further Despite the Bank of England becoming a bit more hawkish, we think that rates will remain on hold for a long time. As a result, inflation will rise above the 2% target for a prolonged period, which... 6th May 2021 · 6 mins read
