Capital Daily We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years. 28th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market sell-off and the rest of the world Although equity indices in both Hong Kong and mainland China have fallen sharply in recent days, the impact on financial markets elsewhere in the world has, so far, been remarkably limited. This... 27th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB’s new guidance and its implications for E-Z bonds We don’t think the changes to the ECB’s guidance announced today or the Bank’s recent strategy review materially alter the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone. However, they make... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market wobble probably not a sign of things to come We doubt that the recent weakness in global equities is the start of a larger rout and think the market will recover before long. 20th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the (slightly) mixed messages in markets In recent weeks, it has often looked as though equity markets aren’t quite on the same page as bond and currency markets. Indeed, despite its fall today, the S&P 500 remains within touching distance... 19th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields Changes in investor positioning may help to explain some of the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields recently, as a large speculative net short position had built up in Q1. But we still think that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US Treasury yields likely to drive DM bond yields higher We continue to expect that a continued global economic recovery and high US inflation will cause US Treasury yields to rise and push long-term government bond yields in most other developed markets. 14th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect high US inflation to weigh on Treasuries While the Treasury market shrugged off another stronger-than-expected CPI print today, we continue to expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise over the next few years, as high inflation proves... 13th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s RRR cut & the outlook for markets The surprise decision on Friday by the PBOC to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for China’s banks suggests to us that there will be further downward pressure on government bond yields in China... 12th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the sell-off in risky assets will continue While we think that the stellar performance of many “risky assets” over the past year will not be replicated over the next few, we also doubt today’s generalised sell-off will continue. We are... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily On the fading of reflation and rotation While we doubt that the “reflation” and “rotation” trades are entirely dead, they may have now largely run their course. 7th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This may be as good as it gets for the Aussie and Kiwi Although the RBA’s hawkish message today and further strong data out of New Zealand sent the Aussie and Kiwi higher, we are becoming less confident in our existing, bullish forecasts for both... 6th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength The US dollar has strengthened against most currencies, despite the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries. We think that the greenback will appreciate further, aided by a rise in long-term... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
