Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the puzzling behaviour of Treasuries Last week’s behaviour of the Treasury market is puzzling for two reasons. First, a further paring back of expectations for tighter monetary policy following the Fed’s mid-week meeting might reasonably... 8th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the post-payrolls fall in Treasury yields will continue The decline in long-dated Treasury yields following the publication of the latest US employment report today is hard to justify, and we do not expect it to last. 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the latest round of central bank meetings Over the past three days, the BoE, the Fed, and the RBA all delivered relatively dovish policy announcements, pushing back, to varying degrees, against the relatively aggressive policy rate paths... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on US corporate earnings and the stock market We think the earnings picture looks better for some sectors of the stock market than others, but overall it is likely to support only limited gains in equities over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ expectations and the outlook for DM monetary policy Although near-term inflationary pressures may prompt most developed market (DM) central banks to bring forward their plans to normalise policy a bit, we continue to think that most will raise rates... 2nd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect E-Z peripheral spreads to remain low While the spreads of 10-year euro-zone “peripheral” government bonds have risen sharply since the ECB’s policy announcement last Thursday, we still expect them to remain very low over the next few... 1st November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy, the yield curve, and bond market conundrums While rises in short-term bond yields haven’t always coincided with higher long-term yields, we are sticking with our view that 10-year bond yields will rise in most major economies over the next... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on developed market yield curves While the flattening of developed markets (DM) yield curves since mid-October gathered pace yesterday, we still expect yield curves in most DMs to steepen again in the near term. 28th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar/oil relationship The relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil is usually negative, but over the past two months oil prices have risen and the greenback has appreciated. While this pattern may persist... 27th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to gold from lower real yields may not last We don’t expect the price of gold to continue to rebound. Our forecast remains that it will end 2023 at $1,550/oz., which compares to a current level of closer to $1,800/oz. 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, Treasury yields & the US stock market While we do not expect a tumble in the US stock market, we doubt that it will remain quite as resilient in the face of rising US Treasury yields as it has in recent weeks. 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think Brazil’s financial markets will remain under pressure While Brazil’s financial markets have now fallen a long way, we don’t expect them to rebound any time soon. 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the... 20th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rise in China’s bond yields to reverse Rather than continue its recent rise, we think that the 10-year government bond yield in China will fall back over the next couple of years, even as US Treasury yields climb further. 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s slowdown will stop Treasury yields from rising We doubt that worries about a sharp slowdown in China’s economy will prevent US Treasury yields from rising further, in contrast to what took place in mid-to-late 2015. 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
