Capital Daily Currency market calm & dollar stability may not last Amid a turbulent start to the year in bond and equity markets, currency markets have remained relatively calm, and the US dollar has not gained much despite the FOMC’s increasingly hawkish stance. We... 1st February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Political risks fall, but ECB tightening points to higher spreads While we think that the re-election of Sergio Mattarella as Italy’s President of the Republic and the victory in the Portuguese general election of the current Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s socialist... 31st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rising bond yields and the prospects for risky assets this year Even if this month’s falls in equity prices don’t continue, we think returns from risky assets in 2022 will be underwhelming when compared with last year. 28th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Fed tightening to push US yields and the USD higher The FOMC’s latest policy announcement reinforces our view that strong underlying inflationary pressures in the US will prompt a sustained tightening cycle, which we think will drive US Treasury yields... 27th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think emerging market currencies will generally fall from here Although emerging market currencies have held up surprisingly well so far this year amid the volatility in global equity markets, we think they will weaken in general against the US dollar before too... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the relative risks from big tech to broad equity indices US “big tech” hasn’t been spared in 2022’s stock market rout, which has gathered quite a lot more momentum today. Its prior outperformance of the rest of the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 was, however... 24th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the stock market sell-off Although we think that there may be some further rotation away from “growth” stocks over the next few years, as Treasury yields rise, we doubt the S&P 500 will have an awful year. 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the sell-off in E-Z government bonds has further to run While the yield of 10-year Bunds has risen a long way recently, and is now above zero for the first time since before the onset of the pandemic, we think it will increase further still. We also expect... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond... 18th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on developments under the hood of the NASDAQ Although the prices of a growing number of shares in the NASDAQ 100 have been floundering recently, we are still not convinced that this heralds an imminent collapse in the index. 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that EM equities will continue to outperform While emerging market (EM) equities have performed better than developed market (DM) equities so far this year, we don’t think that this pattern is likely to continue. 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar drop is at odds with increasingly hawkish Fed The US dollar has started the year on the backfoot and there are several factors that may weigh on it further in the near term. But we think that the Fed’s increasingly rapid shift towards a tighter... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher Despite its slight drop over the past few days, we still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further by the end of 2022. 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rotation may lead to further US stock market underperformance We expect sector rotation to lead to an underperformance of mid- and large-cap equities in the US relative to those in the rest of the developed world in 2022, in contrast to most of the period since... 11th January 2022 · 5 mins read
