Capital Daily Euro-zone credit spreads may largely shrug off weak growth We think corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone will widen only slightly next year, despite dim economic prospects. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB policy may push Bund yields back down next year Given our dovish view of ECB policy, we expect German Bund yields to fall back in 2025, and to diverge further from US Treasury yields. 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM dollar bond rally may fizzle out While emerging market (EM) dollar bonds have gained some ground lately, they have underperformed US high-yield corporate bonds in total return terms, and we suspect they will continue to lag next year... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is this a new dawn for China’s stock market? The Hang Seng index enjoyed another stimulus-related boost today but we’ve seen similar spikes before. For now, we’d caution against interpreting the latest developments as confirmation large-scale... 9th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities may continue to lag those in the US Despite their low absolute and relative valuations, we think China’s equities will continue to lag their US counterparts over the coming year. 5th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the drama in Korea This early edition of the Capital Daily outlines our initial thoughts on the market implications of the political drama in Korea. 4th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall? President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the revival of US small-caps We aren’t convinced the outperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities since Donald Trump’s victory on 5th November sets the tone for the first half of 2025. We doubt they will start to fare better than... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
