Capital Daily Oil prices, inflation compensation & Treasuries Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think Treasury yields will resume their rise even if oil prices fall back. 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening, and financial markets While continued escalation of tensions in Ukraine would very probably put more pressure on “risky” assets in the near term, their fate further down the line might depend on how central banks responded... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in gold may reverse We doubt that the rise in the price of gold in 2022 so far will be sustained. While a lot hinges on how geopolitical tensions play out, our forecast is that it will drop back to $1,600 per ounce by... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to resume their rise While sovereign spreads in the euro-zone “periphery” have fallen back recently, we suspect that they will start rising again before long. 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think relative yields will continue to favour the US dollar While investors have now discounted a lot of policy rate hikes in the US over the next couple of years, we think they may still be underestimating how high the fed funds rate will go this tightening... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, interest rates & the outlook for the UK stock market We think that a backdrop of rising interest rates will help the UK stock market to continue to outperform its US counterpart. 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets caught between a rock and a hard place Two unfamiliar and (largely) unrelated fears are stalking financial markets: the prospect of aggressive policy tightening from major central banks, and the apparent risk of a war between Russia and... 14th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury yield curve: 1994 up front, 2015 in the back? We think long-term Treasury yields will rise only gradually even if the Fed hikes rates at a rapid clip. 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries may keep struggling even after inflation peaks The longer inflation in the US stays high, the more it is likely to affect investors’ expectations. That is another reason why long-term Treasury yields might not drop back quickly even if inflation... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is the worst now over for US equities? We do not expect the S&P 500 to surge again following the rebound from its slump in January. Even so, we think that it will make more headway and end 2022 above its current level. 9th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary tightening & the outlook for DM corporate bonds Despite recent increases, we don’t think that corporate credit spreads in the developed world will rise much, in general, over the next couple of years. 8th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM monetary policy and LC government bond yields We don’t think government bond yields in emerging markets outside Asia will continue to rise much more rapidly than those in Asia over the next couple of years. 7th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Better news for the US economy than the US stock market Today’s stronger-than-expected US Employment Report (see the US section below) serves as a reminder that good news on the economy isn’t necessarily good news for the stock market. 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish BoE and ECB point to higher government bond yields Today’s hawkish surprises from both the Bank of England and the ECB reinforce our view that the yields of long-dated government bonds in the UK and euro-zone will rise over the next two years and that... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Japan and the global bond market sell-off We don’t think Japan’s 10-year government bond yield will rise much further, even as yields elsewhere do so. We expect this to contribute to further weakness in the yen. 2nd February 2022 · 5 mins read
