Capital Daily Italian politics may cause more pain in peripheral bonds markets The latest political turmoil in Italy is a reminder that once Mario Draghi’s time as Prime Minister ends (presumably in Spring 2023 at the latest) Italian politics may become an even greater source of... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think the gold price has further to fall While the price of gold has fallen sharply over the past couple of months, including another small decline today, it still appears much higher than its typically strong inverse relationship with the... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds growing again for US bonds and equities June’s US Employment Report lends support to our forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than is currently discounted in markets, pushing up Treasury yields this year. And... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of PM Johnson’s possible departure We suspect that, at the margin, the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, a further fall in the pound, and continued weakness in... 6th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Euro and euro-zone assets likely to remain under pressure Euro-zone assets and the euro have come under significant pressure recently as concerns about Europe’s energy supplies have intensified. While we think it would take a significant further... 5th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market and metals prices may continue to diverge We think that the recent divergence between the fortunes of China’s stock market and the prices of most industrial metals will continue, albeit with the former seeing renewed falls and the latter... 4th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for US equities and Treasuries We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second half of this year after their torrid performance in the first six months of 2022. 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Central bank put still missing in action Despite renewed falls in equity markets and broadening signs that investors are bracing for a major slowdown in the global economy, most central banks appear determined to press ahead with the most... 30th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of the falls in commodity prices We think further falls in commodity prices will contribute to continued underperformance of commodity-heavy parts of the global equity market, but won’t prevent government bond yields from rising to... 29th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in long-dated Bund yields may have further to run While we expect the recent rise in the yield of 10-year German Bunds to continue between now and the end of 2022, we think there is a significant risk that the recent calm in euro-zone “peripheral”... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years. 27th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect long-dated Treasury yields to resume their rise While the yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen sharply in recent days, we doubt it has already passed its peak. 23rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
