Capital Daily S&P 500 may fall again even if Treasury yields stabilise We suspect that the broad patterns seen in US markets since Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech , i.e. little change in long-dated Treasury yields and lower equities, will persist over the... 30th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in EZ bonds unlikely to last, especially in the periphery While we doubt that today’s drop in euro-zone government bond yields will be sustained, we don’t expect “core” yields to increase much from here. In contrast, we still forecast “peripheral” yields to... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet. 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equity and commodity prices may go their own ways We think equity and commodity prices will generally head in opposite directions over this year and next. It’s been a rough start to the week for many commodities; at the time of writing most were... 17th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rising real yields may end US equity outperformance US equities have rallied over recent weeks and outperformed stocks elsewhere, a trend which kicked up a gear after the US CPI data yesterday. But we expect equities in general to fall over the rest of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling (headline) inflation doesn’t preclude renewed rises in yields Despite dropping on the signs of a softening in some inflationary pressures, we suspect the yield of 10-year US Treasuries might climb again this year. 10th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What the bond market is telling us about inflation US inflation compensation began to unwind its post-FOMC bounce last week, following some hawkish comments from Fed officials and a slump in oil prices. With inflation compensation now some way below... 8th August 2022 · 4 mins read
