Capital Daily Japan’s policymakers have bought the yen some time We think FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), if sustained, will be enough to prevent much further depreciation in the yen against the dollar until downward pressure from widening... 22nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market already firmly braced for a hawkish FOMC The extent of the monetary tightening now discounted in the US ahead of today’s decision by the FOMC suggests to us that long-term Treasury yields are likely to fall back in due course. 21st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Government bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar We think the US dollar will rally further against most major currencies even if, as we expect, it doesn’t receive much more support from interest rate differentials. 20th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi may stabilise despite China’s faltering economy Although we think China’s economic outlook is bleak, we don’t expect further big falls in the renminbi against the greenback. 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the prospects for equities Although we think this week’s disappointing CPI report in the US is just a bump on the road towards much lower inflation, and that today’s rather disappointing news on retail sales and industrial... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We continue to think sterling will fall along with Gilt yields Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower... 14th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite price pressures, we still expect Treasury yields to fall Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow. 13th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the stock-bond correlation may be shifting We suspect the positive correlation between the prices of US equities and Treasuries may fade over the next year or so, and perhaps turn somewhat negative. 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think Gilts will rally over the rest of this year We think 10-year Gilts will recover some ground over the rest of this year as investors pare back expectations for tightening. 7th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Normalising payrolls may not be enough to push equities up With pressure on the Fed easing, we think long-term Treasury yields will fall slightly over the remainder of this year, although we don’t think that will stop the S&P 500 from declining. 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Asian currencies to remain under pressure We think that continued sluggish growth in China and globally means that the renminbi, and other Asian currencies, will fall a bit further this year. 1st September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
