Capital Daily Trump’s term starts with a bang in markets Fresh reports that President Trump will not impose tariffs on Day 1 mean that his inauguration has, quite fittingly, coincided with a volatile day across financial markets. Although we suspect that a... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in Treasuries may have further to go Today’s release of US CPI data for December did not change our view that the Fed will cut its policy rate by a bit more than investors anticipate, and in turn that Treasury yields will edge down... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily It’s time for the S&P 500 to earn its stripes again It’s easy to forget the importance of earnings in influencing the S&P 500 when its performance is driven instead, as has been the case recently, by gyrations in the Treasury market. Earnings will be... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think US stocks will rebound with big tech in the lead We think the recent falls in US equities will unwind before long, with growth and cyclical stocks leading the charge. 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will payrolls pain continue for stocks and bonds? Good news has (once again) proved to be bad news for markets, with Treasuries and equities selling off in response to the strong US payrolls report. But we don’t expect this twin sell-off to persist... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A global bond market storm in a British teacup UK Gilts have not only been embroiled in a global government bond sell-off, but they have fared worse than others. However, we think that bonds will recover before long, with yields in the UK falling... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recent strength in the Korean won could fade further Although the Korean won has strengthened this year, we think its rally will unwind before long. 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What’s behind the rise in Treasury yields? US Treasury yields have surged recently, pulling yields elsewhere up, but we doubt they’ll continue their upward march during the rest of 2025. 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How low can Chinese bond yields go? Chinese government bond yields have tumbled in recent weeks and we think that has a bit further to run. This fall in yields, alongside our view that US tariffs will be imposed, help inform our... 6th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rally likely to extend into 2025 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot. We expect that to continue as the US economy and stock market outperform again while the incoming Trump administration brings in tariffs. While US... 3rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A banner year for the S&P 500 may be followed by another After a stellar 2024, we expect another strong year for US equities in 2025, on the back of continued enthusiasm about AI and US exceptionalism. Meanwhile, we think equities elsewhere will generally... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities ignoring struggling economy UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in... 18th December 2024 · 4 mins read
