Capital Daily A further fiscal retreat in the UK seems only partly discounted We think that we could see a small boost for both Gilts and sterling if the UK government is forced to capitulate further on its plans for fiscal policy. 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still think US Treasury yields will fall back eventually Although core inflationary pressures in the US seem more persistent than we and most others had anticipated, we still think Treasury yields are near their peak and will fall in time. 13th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Beware of misinterpreting the fall in UK inflation compensation A generous interpretation of the recent plunge in inflation compensation in the UK is that it has reflected confidence in the Bank of England’s commitment to tighten monetary policy by as much as it... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Drama in Gilts highlights the strains in other bond markets While the turmoil in the Gilt market has been exacerbated by uncertainty over the UK government’s fiscal plans, it arguably underlines the challenges faced by central banks elsewhere in raising... 11th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US policy deals a blow to China’s equities, not for the last time China’s equities came under pressure today, partly in response to the US announcing fresh curbs on technology exports to the country last Friday. This is another crack in an increasingly fractured... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls point to yields staying high, for now Today’s strong September US employment report added support to the view that Treasury yields will stay high, and the S&P 500 will remain under pressure, for a while yet. But we still think yields will... 7th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think even-higher oil prices will push yields up Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think oil prices could rise further without pushing US inflation compensation, and therefore Treasury yields, any higher. 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the fleeting bounce in the US stock market Today’s sizeable pull-back in the US stock market after a much brighter start to the month fits with our view that it is not yet out of the woods. We don’t expect it continue to struggle for the... 5th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Retreat in bond yields may be a little premature Despite the recent retreat in expectations for interest rates – which seems to be a key driver on the big bounce in equities this week so far – we still expect most major central banks to maintain... 4th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Policy U-turns unlikely to take the pressure off the pound Even though recent developments in the UK may have provided some reassurance to investors and helped sterling to recover, we think that the deteriorating global economic outlook will ensure that the... 3rd October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a different policy mix will revive sterling soon Although a shift in the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy mix could conceivably boost sterling in due course, we suspect that the currency won’t continue to recover in the near term from its record low... 27th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
