Capital Daily We think optimism around China’s COVID policy is misplaced The recent rally in assets and currencies linked to the prospects of China’s economy on hopes that the authorities in China will relax their “zero-COVID” policy is unlikely to last. 7th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t buy the BoE’s dovish tilt We’re inclined to agree with investors’ decision to shrug off the Bank of England’s dovish tilt and the suggestion that market pricing is wide of the mark earlier. We still expect Bank Rate to rise to... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What a change in tack by the Fed could mean for markets We think an eventual Fed “pivot” will push down long-term Treasury yields, although it may not help the stock market much nor prevent a renewed US dollar rally. 2nd November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A weak economy may matter most for sector performance The turnaround in the US stock market since 14th October has coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields. Nonetheless, two of its three “long-duration” sectors have lagged amid disappointing news on... 1st November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Further pain may be in store for growth stocks, and the S&P 500 We don’t think growth stocks’ relative struggles are over, nor do we expect a further rebound in the broader stock market yet. 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent relief rally The rebound across major bond, equity, and currency markets over recent days provides a bit of relief for investors after a torrid few weeks. But we doubt that it will prove the start of a sustained... 26th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Will PM Sunak usher in a period of calm after the storm? Given all the turbulence in the UK’s government bond market over the past month or so, the limited reaction to today’s news that Rishi Sunak will be its next prime minister (PM) may seem surprising... 24th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the relative fortunes of China’s stock markets China’s stock markets have fallen by more than most this week, and indeed over this year so far. But the country’s onshore equities have generally proven more resilient than their offshore... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily PM’s resignation not a panacea for UK markets UK markets have, on balance, not moved much in response to news of PM Truss’ resignation. We suspect that investors need more visibility on Truss’s successor and the implications for fiscal policy... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think credit spreads may widen further as growth falters Although corporate credit spreads have risen quite a lot this year, we think they will increase further as economic growth in several major economies disappoints expectations. 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think valuation will prove a tailwind for the yen before long The yen’s latest weakness has pushed its valuation well below our estimates of “fair value”, which suggests to us it is likely to strengthen substantially over the medium term. We are resending this... 18th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Gilt yields will perform a full Truss-style U-turn While today’s announcements by new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the Gilt market, we don’t expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall too much further in the near term. 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
