Capital Daily Stocks, bonds, and inflation compensation Although they seem to have begun to rise again over recent weeks, we think that investors’ inflation expectations in the US are likely to fall back over the coming months. That would help Treasuries... 14th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities and commodities may move in lockstep again this year Despite the recent divergence, we think equity and commodity prices will move increasingly in tandem over the next year. 13th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the BoJ’s YCC is on borrowed time Kazuo Ueda’s impending appointment as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor doesn’t alter our view that Yield Curve Control (YCC) will be abandoned in a few months’ time, pushing up the 10-year JGB yield and... 10th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC bond yields will probably fall a bit further by end-2023 We think emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will generally fall a bit further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the plunge in credit spreads may be a head fake A recent plunge in credit spreads in the US is one clear sign of hope that the economy there is heading for a soft landing. It jars, however, with two developments that point to the slightly gloomier... 7th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market rally may have further to go Although China’s equities have now rallied a long way, we think they will make some further gains over the rest of this year. 31st January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest rally in the S&P 500 will last We doubt the recent rally in the S&P 500 will prove sustainable. Our view is that US real yields won’t fall much further and that the US economy will soon enter a recession, producing some more near... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Disappointing earnings may weigh further on the US stock market Today’s pullback in the US stock market fits with our view that it remains vulnerable in the coming months to a downgrading of expectations for corporate profits ahead of a mild recession. 25th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect gains in euro-zone equities may slow from here Today's PMIs added to a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone. But much of the good news now appears to be discounted in euro-zone equities, so we expect them to rise at a... 24th January 2023 · 6 mins read
