Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Humphrey-Hawkins turns into Helter-Skelter for money markets While the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its tightening cycle, today’s events suggest there may still be few more bumps in the road for financial markets. 7th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market has scope to shrug off slower growth target Even if economic growth in China this year fails to eclipse the modest 5% target announced at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, we expect its stock market to continue to recover and... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How is “higher for longer” playing out in the US stock market? Notwithstanding the partial recoveries today, the past month or so has seen a sell-off in both Treasuries and equities in which “rate sensitive” stock market sectors have underperformed. So long as... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the latest rise in government bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation and activity data have fuelled a further rebound in developed market (DM) government bond yields, posing upside risks to our policy rate forecasts. Even so, we think... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rise in euro-zone bond yields may be overdone We think the recent rise in euro-zone government bond yields will reverse course over the rest of 2023, and that “periphery” spreads may widen a bit as investors’ risk appetite deteriorates. 28th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yield curve phoney war With the US yield curve more deeply inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, it is worth (again) considering what the implications for financial markets are. 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and Russia’s invasion, one year on Despite first appearances, financial markets haven’t shrugged off the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and we think the ramifications could continue to be important to investors. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market may already be braced for “higher for longer” Investors have ramped up their expectations for the near-term path of the Fed funds rate amid talk of “higher for longer”. But long-run expectations for the policy rate have already climbed... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EZ markets may keep struggling to shake off concerns in the US We doubt “risky” assets in the euro-zone will be resilient to the further weakness we foresee in their counterparts in the US. 22nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of mixed signals on the global economy While not our base-case forecast, the recent resilience of service sectors and labour markets seem to have raised the chance of a “higher for longer” scenario for policy rates. That could be bad news... 21st February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two pandemics and the importance of valuations Those hoping for stellar gains in the US stock market in the post-COVID years may be disappointed. Its valuation is far less appealing now than it was at the end of the big pandemic of the 20th... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Mexican peso’s outperformance will reverse soon While it has outperformed nearly all major currencies over the past couple of years, we think the Mexican peso will fall sharply against the dollar if, as we expect, the US economy weakens later this... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Trying to make sense of the mixed messages in US bond markets This year’s growing inversion of the Treasury curve can be reconciled with the accompanying slump in credit spreads if the monetary tightening that has caused short-term yields to rise further above... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
