Capital Daily A debt ceiling crisis wouldn’t necessarily be worse for Treasuries We don’t think long-dated government bonds are bound to fare worse than equities in the US if there is a debt ceiling crisis. 25th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Treasury and S&P 500 volatility to converge We suspect that volatility in the Treasury market will fall over the rest of 2023 as tail risks around Fed policy shrink. But our downbeat view of economic growth in advanced economies leads us to... 24th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US growth stocks may lose some more of their shine We think that the more recent underperformance of some of the largest US growth stocks could be a sign of things to come over the coming years, given how large the valuation gaps between growth and... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bad news for risky assets: financial conditions really are tight We think Fed Chair Powell was right to suggest last month that financial conditions have probably tightened by more than the traditional indices imply. That spells bad news for risky assets. We are... 20th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect strong gains for China’s equities this year Despite the generally muted market reaction to today’s strong data releases for China’s economy, we think the reopening rally in China’s equity market still has further to run this year. 18th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed earnings unlikely to change outlook for the banking sector Q1 earnings reports from US banks have been a mixed bag thus far; we still believe the sector faces a difficult year ahead. 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think a recession will weigh heavily on US equities While the recent data on the US economy have been mixed, we expect a recession there before long. We think that will put renewed downward pressure on US equities. 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Lower Treasury yields likely to continue supporting gold The recent strength in the gold price will probably continue over the course of this year and into 2024 as lower “risk-free” interest rates enhance the yellow metal’s relative appeal. 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed CPI unlikely to drive Treasury yields much higher While we think that today’s US CPI data has increased the probability of another rate hike from the Fed next month, we continue to think that Treasuries will resume their rally later this year while... 12th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ueda-driven drop in the yen unlikely to last Amid a holiday-affected few days in financial markets, one move that stands out is the fall of the yen. But we doubt its weakness will last much longer. 11th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt “risky” assets will continue to defy economic gravity We still think “risky” assets are set for a tough time as the US economy continues to slow. 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More hikes may not be enough to keep long-dated yields high Despite some central banks pressing on with hikes, we think long-dated yields will end this year at, or below, current levels. 5th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt higher oil prices will stop Treasury yields falling further Although the decision by OPEC+ members to cut oil production might push up oil prices further, we don’t think that will stop US Treasury yields falling further over the rest of the year. 3rd April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to infer from the “narrowing” US stock market Although a “narrowing” of the stock market hasn’t always been a harbinger of an impending slump in equity prices in the US, we suspect it will be on this occasion as a recession takes hold. 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
