Capital Daily Equity valuations may eventually get more stretched The valuations of equities are, in general, still a long way from being unprecedently high compared to those of government bonds. 5th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renminbi intervention China has stepped up its support of the renminbi, which has rebounded over the past couple of days. This may well prove a turning point for the currency. Three key points are worth emphasising. 4th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may become a headwind for US equities US stock markets’ gains in recent months, both in absolute terms and relative to their European peers, owe a lot to their rising valuations. But equities in the US are now arguably quite highly valued... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention is in the air (again): will it work? The Riksbank’s curious communication choices around its foreign exchange reserves earlier today highlight both the challenges depreciating currencies pose to policymakers and the particular... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Latin American equities keep outperforming? Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we... 27th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the UK’s inflation mess Yet another upside surprise to UK inflation today has put the spotlight squarely back on Gilts and sterling, both of which have come under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England policy... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Little sign of AI euphoria in corporate credit While the AI revolution has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for US equities today, we don’t think it changes the outlook for US corporate credit spreads much. We think spreads still look too... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of even more inverted yield curves The greater inversion of yield curves, in response to the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, suggests to us the strength of equities won’t last. 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The S&P 500’s rally: 1995 or 2000? While the lessons from the late-1990s suggest that euphoria over AI could support the stock market for quite a while, especially in the US, we still think that weak economies will take some of the... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed and ECB to hike in July, but US & EZ bond yields may fall While the ECB and the Fed took slightly different paths this week, we think they will both tighten policy again in July. Nonetheless, we still think government bond yields in the US and the euro-zone... 15th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The fed funds rate may go lower than investors think Investors may be right about the near-term path of the fed funds rate, but we suspect they’re underestimating how far it will fall; that’s one reason we think long-dated Treasuries will rally. 14th June 2023 · 7 mins read
