Capital Daily What to make of the bond market meltdown While government bond yields have stabilised today, their sharp rises over recent weeks are increasingly concerning. We think there are four key observations to make at this point. 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Australian bonds could yet decouple from US Treasuries We think that the yields of Australian long-term sovereign bonds will fall by a bit less than those of US Treasuries over the next couple of years, even though they’ve moved in lockstep lately. But... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not see the new year The higher-for-longer narrative took hold over the third quarter, pushing bonds and equities down in most markets. But we doubt that this narrative will last. We expect bond markets to rebound as... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the round trip in euro-zone bond markets While concerns about euro-zone public finances put upward pressure on bond yields there, the outlook for inflation will probably remain the focus for investors. In our view, that means bond yields in... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Examining the resilience of “tech” stocks to higher yields We think the “tech”-heavy sectors of the stock market, which have largely shrugged off the rout in Treasuries, will generally continue to do well. 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming 10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set... 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How we see AI playing out in stock markets We think that investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) will grow again next year and inflate a bubble in stock markets. This is just one of the many consequences that AI will have on the... 26th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Ueda makes yen intervention more likely With the Bank of Japan offering little new at its policy meeting earlier today and US Treasury yields surging higher in the wake of the FOMC’s hawkish message earlier in the week, pressure on the yen... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt hawkish rhetoric will stop yields from falling Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, we still expect most long-dated government bond yields in developed markets to fall over the next couple of years. 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil likely to remain a sideshow for financial markets The recent rally in oil prices has had only a limited impact on bond and equity markets so far. And we doubt that this will change anytime soon, given our view that the rally will not last much longer... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily On the dwindling influence of TIPS on other assets The latest increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~2% at one point last week, has barely caused a ripple in the markets. More generally, the influence of “safe”... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities may be ready to outperform the US We expect China’s equities to fare better than those in the US in the near term. 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What further disinflation may mean for US equities Although today’s August CPI report was broadly in line with expectations, it provided further evidence that underlying inflation in the US is coming down even as the economy there weathers the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
