Capital Daily “Goldilocks” markets may eventually benefit gold too While the gold price has retreated over the past week or so, we think it is set for a renewed rally next year as the Fed cuts interest rates and long-term real yields fall back further. 11th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Yields in the US and Japan may diverge The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything keep the US dollar down for good? We expect the US dollar’s resilience to fade over the next year or so, and forecast it to weaken against most major currencies. 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Still time for the S&P 500 to party like it’s 1999 Despite how far it has come this year, we think the S&P 500 can make further big gains over the next couple of years. 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Relief rally in Swedish krona a sign of things to come? Given how far below “fair value” the Swedish krona appears to us, we suspect that its decade-long fall may be coming to an end. 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why US equities may continue to outshine corporate bonds Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves may normalise next year as rate cuts begin We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economics to keep trumping politics in EZ markets While the Freedom Party’s victory in the Dutch parliamentary election was a big surprise, there is in our view only a very small probability that it will have a substantial impact on financial markets... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the AI tailwind for equity markets run out of puff? We think investor enthusiasm about AI could yet boost equity prices further. 22nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the yen and renminbi will extend their gains The fall in US Treasury yields has driven rebounds in the yen and renminbi against the US dollar, and we expect this trend to continue through at least the next year or so. 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Early thoughts on Mileinomics & market implications Victory for maverick Javier Milei in Argentina’s presidential election means the country is about to embark on yet another economic experiment. While it is hard to say what that will bring for its... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
