Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could it finally be Chinese equities’ year? We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. 10th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the future really brighter for the US office sector? A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds might keep struggling a bit Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. 8th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of mixed messages on the US labour market Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report. In doing so, it appears to have called at... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily 2024 could be a better year for the yen than the renminbi We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ normalisation may lift JGB yields & bolster the yen We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And we think the yield gap... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are China’s equities finally about to stage a comeback? We think China’s equities could outperform those elsewhere in the near term, but suspect their longer-run outlook is fairly bleak. 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower rate expectations may fuel the Treasury rally Investors have revised down their expectations for the Fed funds rate a long way in recent weeks. But we think that shift will continue in the coming months, pushing Treasury yields down further. 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still see scope for further falls in bond yields While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to... 12th December 2023 · 4 mins read
