Capital Daily South African election adds uncertainty in markets The early results from South Africa’s general election suggest that the African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of securing a majority, and may be forced into forming a coalition with the... 30th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields will start falling before long We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting. 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Have JGB yields found their sweet spot? The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly... 28th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three key questions on the stock market rally’s durability We doubt yesterday’s drop in the US equity market will prove a harbinger of further weakness to come – indeed, stocks have already rebounded today. But the unusual combination of a sizeable drop in... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A Labour government probably wouldn’t roil UK markets While the prospect of the Labour Party returning to government in the UK for the first time in 14 years might raise a few eyebrows in the financial markets, we wouldn’t put much store by the fact that... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think rate expectations will drive yields down this year Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets to fall over the next year or so. 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity outperformance may not help to revive the dollar The US dollar has been on the back foot amid the renewed rally in “risky” assets. While we think US stocks will soon re-establish the lead among global equities, we doubt US equity outperformance... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Policy sugar rush may only take Chinese equities so far New measures to support China’s property sector have brought more cheer to Chinese equities. But, while we continue to think they will fare well in the coming months, we ultimately expect them to lose... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation relief for both Treasuries & equities Better news on US inflation over the past couple of days has provided further relief for bond and equity markets, and supports our forecast that Treasury yields will fall back a bit more over the... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Scope for Gilt yields and sterling to fall further Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The balancing act of a stronger yen for Japan’s markets We expect Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise a bit and the yen to come off the boil later this year, creating a headwind for equities there. 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
