Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a broad-based fall in DM bond yields Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How long can the US stock market stand on one leg? The US stock market has hit another fresh all-time high, with its ascent is an increasingly lonely one driven by a handful of its constituents. That pattern may be difficult to sustain indefinitely... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we... 18th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The best things might still not come in small packages We expect the renewed underperformance of small-cap equities vis-à-vis larger ones, which is now near its most extreme in two decades in the US, to continue there over the next year or so. That’s... 17th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may not push JGB ones down further Although falling Treasury yields may continue to exert some downward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, we don’t think that will drive them much lower by the end of the year. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is it too late for China’s tech stocks to join the party? We think that China’s “tech” equities could resume their rally, but that they’re unlikely to see anything like the gains their developed market peers have. 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls surprise unlikely to slow AI-rally much Another strong reading on the US labour market has reversed much of the recent drop in US interest rate expectations but we continue to think Treasury yield are headed lower later this year. 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How Canadian and US bond yields may measure up Although the gap between 10-year Treasury and Canadian Government Bond yields has reached the highest level in at least three decades today, we think it will widen even further in the next couple of... 5th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM elections & markets: the good, the bad, & the ugly? Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in financial markets. Those moves may not last – often the immediate reaction to political events proves overdone – but... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The influence of Treasuries and AI on stocks The fall in Treasury yields over the past two days has failed to lift equities, partly because of waning AI hype weighing on the market. That’s a contrast to much of the past year or so, when the... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
