Capital Daily Four key points on Trump & financial markets Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key... 15th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could the economy burst this bubble? Another fairly encouraging US CPI report seems unlikely to blow the buoyant S&P 500 far off course given the implications for Fed policy. Indeed, it strengthens the case for a rate cut in September. 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the euro will fare well against the pound In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are bond markets in India & China getting interesting? Recent developments have brought the global spotlight onto sovereign bonds in India and China. We expect the former to fare the best of the two. 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Yen still poised for a large rebound when Fed eases Despite the continued depreciation of the yen so far this year, we still expect it to rebound against the greenback supported by its relatively low valuation and the start of the easing cycle in the... 2nd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily French election first-round relief rally might not last Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to... 1st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two tech bubbles & why we doubt this one will pop soon The last US tech bubble inflated in a different way to this one. A comparison of the two leads us to conclude that this bubble will continue to inflate, despite the recent wobble in Nvidia’s share... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the yen’s latest woes Although it’s showed little signs of it lately, we still expect the yen to rebound against the dollar. 26th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The end of the beginning for the AI bubble? Nvidia has entered correction territory, but we doubt this will mark the beginning of the end of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI). Instead, this might usher in a new phase of a bubble we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here. 24th June 2024 · 3 mins read
