Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields. 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB still likely to cut in September despite mixed data Today’s release of inflation and activity data for the euro-zone has in our view slightly reduced the chances of a cut from the ECB at its next meeting. However, the bigger picture is that the data... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The market implications of the UK’s spending shortfall The lack of much reaction on net in markets to today’s statement by the UK’s new Chancellor suggests to us that investors remain confident in the Labour Party’s commitment to fiscal discipline. But... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think big-tech stocks will return to the top We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Big-tech results and rotation Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have... 24th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US banks may rally further We think there are a number of factors supporting the recent rally in US bank shares, not just the rotation out of tech stocks. So, while we doubt this rotation is here to stay, we think bank stocks... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Whither the “Trump-trade” post-Biden? President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his re-election bid adds another element of uncertainty to the election campaign, but it is unlikely, by itself, to alter the calculus facing market participants... 22nd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing two threats to Japan’s stock market We expect Japan’s stock market to continue to struggle in yen terms, but to fare better in US dollar terms over the rest of the year. 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB overshadowed by French politics Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Four points on rotation A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks... 17th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end? We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve. 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
