Capital Daily

Further renminbi weakness looks likely to us

We think China will continue to allow the renminbi to weaken, perhaps all the way to 8.0/$ .

16th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Market turbulence may continue to subside

While the dust from the market sell-off continues to settle, there are few signs that the turmoil in equity and sovereign bond markets has sparked broader instability or a self-reinforcing downward...

15th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the worst in markets over?

The market turmoil sparked by the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on “Liberation day” has somewhat eased in the past couple of trading days. Absent further bad news, we think the worst...

14th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Xi to Trump: Anything You Can Do (I Can Do … )

China’s tit-for-tat retaliation in its rapidly escalating trade war with the US exerted some renewed pressure on equities and the dollar today, with bonds still buffeted by expectations of monetary...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Stock market’s recovery hasn’t left it fully healed

US President Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of many of his previously announced tariffs has sent markets – especially equities – soaring, but there are some risk premia remaining that...

10th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

More thoughts about the ongoing rout in Treasuries

US Treasuries are not benefitting from market turmoil, and we suspect they will keep struggling.

9th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the sudden sell-off in bonds

We think the turnaround in longer-dated Treasury yields has bit further to run, if – and it’s a big if – the worst is now over for the US stock market.

8th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities

The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will...

7th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the market fall-out

It’s not often that the US Employment Report is a sideshow. But that’s been the case today, as the ongoing fall-out from Donald Trump’s swingeing “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s strong response to...

4th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day”

Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market...

3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles?

Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the...

2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound

Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs.

1st April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones?

While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further.

31st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad

The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market.

28th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now

Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so.

27th March 2025 · 4 mins read