Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan 2026) The 0.3%-pt drop back in the unemployment rate to 6.5% last month came on the back of a large fall in the labour force and in spite of a 25,000 decline in employment. We expect this trend to continue... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov 2025) We now know that GDP probably declined in the fourth quarter, and the monthly data for November is grimmer than first appears, with broad based declines in goods producing industries offset by a... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov 2025) Exports volumes in November are not as bad as first appears, and probably would have risen if not for a plunge in volatile gold exports. Meanwhile, we continue to see tentative signs of Canada... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan 2025) The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov 2025) The strong rebound in retail sales in November appears to mostly reflect a temporary boost from Black Friday deals rather than a more lasting pickup in consumer demand, given the 0.5% decline expected... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov 2025) While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Dec 2025) The 0.3%-pt rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.8% last month was mostly due to the unwinding of temporary moves which had pulled it down the month prior. With private sector hiring also flat last... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Oct 2025) Export volumes fell a little and the trade balance returned to deficit in October, but the increases in imports of investment products bode well for domestic demand and there were some tentative signs... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected, while acknowledging that the economic outlook has improved somewhat since... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov. 2025) November’s much better-than-expected 53,600 rise in employment marks the third consecutive large consensus-beating gain, confirming that hiring has regained momentum after the initial tariff shock... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 2025 and Sep) The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying contraction in domestic demand. The declines in household consumption... 28th November 2025 · 3 mins read
