Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2024) Despite the trade deficit widening in August, developments earlier in the quarter means that net trade looks set to support GDP growth in the third quarter. With most of that positive contribution... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) The rebound in retail sales volumes in July will be welcome news to the Bank of Canada, which has been concerned about the downside risks to the economy. With the outlook for sales positive, there is... 20th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The return of headline inflation to the 2.0% target in August was mainly due to favourable base effects and is likely to be short-lived, with inflation rebounding to as high as 2.5% by the turn of the... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The rebound in employment in August should soothe fears about the risk that the economy is taking a turn for the worse, although the 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate to 6.6% presents clear... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024) Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jul. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade balance in July was for the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. The weakness was due to sharp declines in motor vehicle trade... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2024) Although second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, the downgrade to GDP in June and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in July imply that third-quarter growth will be much... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024) It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2024) The strength of oil exports in June suggests that GDP in the second quarter will come in stronger than the 2.1% annualised gain that the flash estimate implied. Coupled with stronger consumer goods... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May.) The larger-than-expected rise in GDP in May suggests that the economy performed a little better than we anticipated last quarter, although the preliminary estimate of only a small rise in June is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2024) After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
